Objectives

At this time, we have secured sole proprietary access to data on the total adoption of insect resistant and herbicide resistant cotton (including stacked varieties). This data set consists of the census of cotton biotechnology adoption and diffusion (by grower and area) and it is the most comprehensive dataset of its kind. This data set will be used in an economic and environmental impact assessment of biotechnology crops in adopting states. Specifically, this study proposes to:

• Measure the total economic impact of cotton biotechnologies in the US by assessing the revenue gains and cost reductions across all adopting states over the period 1999-2000.
• Measure the total environmental impact of cotton biotechnologies across all adopting states over the period 1999-2000. Such environmental impacts include potential changes in pesticide use and potential shifts towards minimum tillage systems attributable to the use of agrobiotechnology in the US.

Procedures

As indicated, a data set detailing the spatial and temporal patterns of adoption and diffusion for all cotton biotechnologies is already at hand. Additional data on yeild differentials, chemical applications, costs, tillage systems and managerial variables will be obtained through a carefully designed survey that will ensure representativeness of the sample over the whole population of adopters and non-adopters. Using econometric techniques, differences in costs, yields, profits, tillage systems and chemical use attributable to the use of agrobiotechnology will be estimated. These differences will then be projected over the entire population and adopting regions through calibration of relevant sub-samples.

Preliminary analysis of the existing database suggests that a sample of 4,500 cotton farmers should be surveyed in order to provide sufficient data that will represent the impact of cotton biotechnologies since their introduction. A 50% return rate is assumed, which is high by conventional mail survey standards. As a result, a call-mail survey-call approach will be followed to achieve the stated goal. Directed phone surveys will be conducted as needed to ensure the representativeness of the sample after all mail surveys have been received.

Impact

It is expected that through such a study, the economic and environmental impacts of agrobiotechnology will be accurately assessed. Such assessment will be key input to decision-makers in governments and the private sector but will also provide important information to the general public which is asking whether biotechnology benefits outweigh any potential risks.